Post by benji on Nov 29, 2021 13:52:32 GMT -5
With Thanksgiving this week, and my being out of town, I missed the round 9 write up RIP Alex 
. I'm not sure I am a decent narrator for that round, either, as I was few and far between in catching up on what was going on.
We are down to our final 9, headed into Live Night tonight! We have four plans circling currently: Parhelia's plan (Rizo, Niki, Kelly, Bridget, Morgan, Nina), Nina/Morgan (+whoever they can pick up), Kelly's plan (with whomever she thinks) and Niki/Bridget/Morgan's plan. A lot of these will coincide, but they all have different key players. It sounds like a consensus that Bryce will be going first, but as for the second vote? Niki, Brooke, Bridget, Patrick, Kelly and Rizo's names have all been tossed around. Who will get their way tonight?
Let's break down how everyone is doing:
1. Morgan
I honestly wasn't sure we would ever get here. Every write up each week, I've been waiting for Morgan to step outside of her comfort zone. I'm not sure if it was timing, but she's propelled herself into, easily, the best spot for anyone in the game. She has bigger targets in Rizo, Kelly, and Bryce. She's also actively working with nearly the whole cast. In the plans I listed above, Morgan is the only person being given full access to all of the plans. And her trustworthiness throughout the season has helped secure this spot for her. The best part? Some of those groups above KNOW she's playing double agent. It gives her all the more opportunity to bounce around, as it's expected among her allies. I'm worried how she might be perceived after this round is over... but it also depends on who is left after live night.
2. Nina
I struggled putting Nina in this spot. Nina's game right now is akin to a jenga tower with every loose block pulled from the lower half. If anything happens, she could easily fall to the bottom of this list. I don't exactly know how she does it, but she continues to build lies, cold shoulder people, and come up with her own plans. She's working to get Kelly out, which if it doesn't go through, will go through eventually. That being said, she doesn't really need Kelly. I think that Nina can be the person who helps get rid of other people's problems. And she's good at it. Her lies might rub some the wrong way, but it helps create a comfortable narrative for herself. Nina could wiggle her way to the end and garner some respect from the jury, IMO.
3. Niki
Niki is in a good place, despite her name being tossed out by some of her own Parhelians. She was the initial plan for vote 2 tonight, as people want to flush her idol. Lucky for her, she recently locked down a final 3 in Morgan and Bridget. And Morgan seems the most likely to stick to this trio, which helps all of their cases. Bridget and Niki are privy to all of the plans circling, and she may get to keep her idol tonight, which will definitely help her late game. Since we will be down to a handful of tribals where she can use her idol, every vote where she's safe ensures that it will be used at a very needed time. Niki might need to make a major move before FTC, but she has time for that.
4. Brooke
Brooke shouldn't really be this high, but she's a low priority for everyone (although players are tossing her name around as a threat... I think to just fill the awkward void of discussing each other). My only concerns for her game are mostly how naïve she *has* to play these rounds. Brooke can't exactly be digging around to get the exact vote, so she has to rely on whatever is told to her. She will be lied to, and I think she can guilt a few players into working with her after tonight. Depending on who's voted out will really map out the rest of Brooke's game here.
5. Bridget
I feel like Bridget is putting too much stress into the game. She has wanted to have control of any round or vote, but doesn't really get it... because everyone is cross referencing information. I can sense her frustration that things aren't going exactly the way she wants them to. It's almost like she's getting paranoid that she won't win, if she gets to the end. She's already mentioned how she's harboring a path for Morgan to win... so I think she's going to try and cut Morgan before it's too late. I just don't see this ending well for Bridget. I fear she will continue to be her own worst enemy.
6. Kelly
The problem with Kelly's game is that she's continuing to play with the formula she built for herself: placate Rizo, scheme with Nina, give Morgan all of her info, play the puppet master. Well, unfortunately, other people started to elevate their games, mostly in response to Kelly's domination. My concern is that Kelly isn't presuming that this is happening. I mean, she's kind of paranoid every round, but I honestly think she's considered herself the point player for the season. Knowing she wants to get rid of Rizo shows growth, but it needs so much more than getting rid of him. She told Morgan last night about how much faith Rizo puts into her. If Rizo and Kelly both survive this round, this is plenty of fuel to get one or both out ASAP.
7. Patrick
Patrick is in one of those situations where... if you don't get him out in the next few rounds... he might be here for the long haul. That's also dependent on if people want to take him to FTC. These players have grown so close, that I think they might cut him after this round, just to stick with people they're loyal to. Patrick continues to play aggressively, but also keeping lines of communication as open as he can. He abruptly will leave calls, demand information out of players or otherwise make them feel less connected to him than before. Regardless, he's less of a threat than any other player in the game.
8. Rizo
In one of my earlier write ups, I was nervous painting Rizo as too confident... but DAMN. His confidence has GROWN and for zero reason. His game is getting weaker by the minute, and the girls are growing so much closer. There have been multiple Parhelia conversations he wasn't in on (because he's been busy). There have been new alliances and duos being formed... and he thinks that because he's tight with Kelly that the world is on his shoulder. Well, Kelly is planning a Rizo blindside for tonight. At least, that's what she thinks. Granted, she might be able to get the numbers and get him out, but that all depends on how vote 1 goes, and who wins immunity from there. Rizo is not well liked by most of the cast and either he or his number one is going out tonight (I think...). If somehow Rizo and Kelly both survive, he might be okay... but I really doubt it.
9. Bryce
Bryce's blow-up at last tribal council has really secured the bottom spot for him. This late in the game, no one wants someone that unpredictable playing with them. He's lost a lot of trust and friends. Not to mention, all of the previous feelings people had for him leading up to that tribal council. I think they're just tired of having to tip toe around him and answer his pleas. Bryce is, nearly most definitely, the vote for this first tribal council tonight.
Winner Pick as of Today?
It's gotta be MORGAN
. I'm not sure I am a decent narrator for that round, either, as I was few and far between in catching up on what was going on. We are down to our final 9, headed into Live Night tonight! We have four plans circling currently: Parhelia's plan (Rizo, Niki, Kelly, Bridget, Morgan, Nina), Nina/Morgan (+whoever they can pick up), Kelly's plan (with whomever she thinks) and Niki/Bridget/Morgan's plan. A lot of these will coincide, but they all have different key players. It sounds like a consensus that Bryce will be going first, but as for the second vote? Niki, Brooke, Bridget, Patrick, Kelly and Rizo's names have all been tossed around. Who will get their way tonight?
Let's break down how everyone is doing:
1. Morgan
I honestly wasn't sure we would ever get here. Every write up each week, I've been waiting for Morgan to step outside of her comfort zone. I'm not sure if it was timing, but she's propelled herself into, easily, the best spot for anyone in the game. She has bigger targets in Rizo, Kelly, and Bryce. She's also actively working with nearly the whole cast. In the plans I listed above, Morgan is the only person being given full access to all of the plans. And her trustworthiness throughout the season has helped secure this spot for her. The best part? Some of those groups above KNOW she's playing double agent. It gives her all the more opportunity to bounce around, as it's expected among her allies. I'm worried how she might be perceived after this round is over... but it also depends on who is left after live night.
2. Nina
I struggled putting Nina in this spot. Nina's game right now is akin to a jenga tower with every loose block pulled from the lower half. If anything happens, she could easily fall to the bottom of this list. I don't exactly know how she does it, but she continues to build lies, cold shoulder people, and come up with her own plans. She's working to get Kelly out, which if it doesn't go through, will go through eventually. That being said, she doesn't really need Kelly. I think that Nina can be the person who helps get rid of other people's problems. And she's good at it. Her lies might rub some the wrong way, but it helps create a comfortable narrative for herself. Nina could wiggle her way to the end and garner some respect from the jury, IMO.
3. Niki
Niki is in a good place, despite her name being tossed out by some of her own Parhelians. She was the initial plan for vote 2 tonight, as people want to flush her idol. Lucky for her, she recently locked down a final 3 in Morgan and Bridget. And Morgan seems the most likely to stick to this trio, which helps all of their cases. Bridget and Niki are privy to all of the plans circling, and she may get to keep her idol tonight, which will definitely help her late game. Since we will be down to a handful of tribals where she can use her idol, every vote where she's safe ensures that it will be used at a very needed time. Niki might need to make a major move before FTC, but she has time for that.
4. Brooke
Brooke shouldn't really be this high, but she's a low priority for everyone (although players are tossing her name around as a threat... I think to just fill the awkward void of discussing each other). My only concerns for her game are mostly how naïve she *has* to play these rounds. Brooke can't exactly be digging around to get the exact vote, so she has to rely on whatever is told to her. She will be lied to, and I think she can guilt a few players into working with her after tonight. Depending on who's voted out will really map out the rest of Brooke's game here.
5. Bridget
I feel like Bridget is putting too much stress into the game. She has wanted to have control of any round or vote, but doesn't really get it... because everyone is cross referencing information. I can sense her frustration that things aren't going exactly the way she wants them to. It's almost like she's getting paranoid that she won't win, if she gets to the end. She's already mentioned how she's harboring a path for Morgan to win... so I think she's going to try and cut Morgan before it's too late. I just don't see this ending well for Bridget. I fear she will continue to be her own worst enemy.
6. Kelly
The problem with Kelly's game is that she's continuing to play with the formula she built for herself: placate Rizo, scheme with Nina, give Morgan all of her info, play the puppet master. Well, unfortunately, other people started to elevate their games, mostly in response to Kelly's domination. My concern is that Kelly isn't presuming that this is happening. I mean, she's kind of paranoid every round, but I honestly think she's considered herself the point player for the season. Knowing she wants to get rid of Rizo shows growth, but it needs so much more than getting rid of him. She told Morgan last night about how much faith Rizo puts into her. If Rizo and Kelly both survive this round, this is plenty of fuel to get one or both out ASAP.
7. Patrick
Patrick is in one of those situations where... if you don't get him out in the next few rounds... he might be here for the long haul. That's also dependent on if people want to take him to FTC. These players have grown so close, that I think they might cut him after this round, just to stick with people they're loyal to. Patrick continues to play aggressively, but also keeping lines of communication as open as he can. He abruptly will leave calls, demand information out of players or otherwise make them feel less connected to him than before. Regardless, he's less of a threat than any other player in the game.
8. Rizo
In one of my earlier write ups, I was nervous painting Rizo as too confident... but DAMN. His confidence has GROWN and for zero reason. His game is getting weaker by the minute, and the girls are growing so much closer. There have been multiple Parhelia conversations he wasn't in on (because he's been busy). There have been new alliances and duos being formed... and he thinks that because he's tight with Kelly that the world is on his shoulder. Well, Kelly is planning a Rizo blindside for tonight. At least, that's what she thinks. Granted, she might be able to get the numbers and get him out, but that all depends on how vote 1 goes, and who wins immunity from there. Rizo is not well liked by most of the cast and either he or his number one is going out tonight (I think...). If somehow Rizo and Kelly both survive, he might be okay... but I really doubt it.
9. Bryce
Bryce's blow-up at last tribal council has really secured the bottom spot for him. This late in the game, no one wants someone that unpredictable playing with them. He's lost a lot of trust and friends. Not to mention, all of the previous feelings people had for him leading up to that tribal council. I think they're just tired of having to tip toe around him and answer his pleas. Bryce is, nearly most definitely, the vote for this first tribal council tonight.
Winner Pick as of Today?
It's gotta be MORGAN